Fundamental Concepts

Case 84

Filmore Enterprises

Fundamental Concepts

Directed

Text Box: 1Kathy Filgrade started Computer Products Corporation (CPC) in 1985 to design computer systems for individuals and small offices. The company produces machines and software to fit unique cus­tomer needs and sells the systems at reasonable prices. The company started small and put a heavy emphasis on customer service and education. Many of the initial customers were computer illiter­ate and appreciated the staff’s willingness to explain the capabilities of computing in a direct and r,on-intimidating manner. Customers felt that the technicians could configure systems to meet their requirements and then provide the necessary instructions to operate them efficiently. As a result, cus­tomers developed a special relationship with the company and continue to patronize the store with subsequent computer and software requirements.

CPC’s reputation for quality and for friendly, knowledgeable employees allowed the company to expand rapidly. By March 1997 the company operated six “mega-stores” between Chicago and Milwaukee. The company is operating smoothly, and Kathy is interested in pursuing additional busi­ness opportunities. She does not want to open stores too far from her office because she feels the existing regional focus provides strong quality control. She also believes that the current geo­graphic market area is saturated with computer stores. Therefore, she is interested in identifying a related line of business in which to operate.

Kathy is aware of the growing demand for cyber-bars or cyber-cafes that are springing up throughout the country. These establishments provide ready access to computing resources, includ­ing the internet, in a relaxed atmosphere. They allow traveling business professionals, students, and others a place to work and socialize. Kathy believes that she can provide a competitive edge to this type of operation by offering on-site computer consultation. She is comfortable with the hard­ware and software demands of this type of enterprise and can hire excellent consultants and instruc­tors from her existing stores. However, she is interested in finding a partner to handle the food and beverage aspect of the business.

While attending the board of trustees meeting for the local community college, Kathy men­tioned her idea to another trustee, Randy Morely. Randy owns and operates Morely Distributors, the local beverage company that he inherited from his father. He has worked at Morely Distributors since graduation from college and assumed full responsibility for the business ten years ago. Randy is an excellent businessman. He had worked with Kathy previously to develop a management infor­mation system for his operation, which resulted in a general reorganization of the business. Those

© 1998 South-Western, a part of Cengage Learning

changes were instrumental in, doubling the company’s profitability. in spite of this Ateces,,

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feels he operates in his father’s shadow. ,

Randy’s prior association with Kathy was extremely positive. They

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“rked to2tiv„th:

a‘oid problems with the new system and strengthened the final project. He is very• s

the quality of Kathy’s operation, and he thinks that the cyber-cafe would provide a n, „-“u ‘41ittl ensure in which to develop his own business reputation. Randy also believes that Perfect though they approached issues from different points of view. Their distinct persat theirevi

mpres, ness environment is perfect for establishing this type of endeavor and that the business SineSS has profit potential. great

Due to his sales contacts, Randy is well connected with the restaurant industry. He is

of a small chain of successful delicatessens that could be bought and expanded to include aZarearea. He also knows several excellent restaurant managers who may he interested in running otherrot: and beverage part of the operation.

to conduct a feasibility study. The study determined that strong local demand for this type°rnica7
Enterprises in order to provide additional room for diversification. They hired a consulting c D:r„e

Kathy and Randy decided to pursue the development of a cyber-cafe and nampaetie

vice exists, but start-up costs arc high. In spite of the initial costs, breakeven is anticipatedi Fin;reer.years, and the profit potential is excellent.

After the company establishes a solid track record. Kathy and Randy want to take Film e Enterprises public, through an initial public offering that would trade over the counter. They k:-that most people are risk adverse and require a higher return for holding riskier investments. “1”hew‘are interested in understanding these issues more fully. Therefore, they asked the consultants t0 prepare a discussion of risk and return. Since Kathy and Randy’s current wealth is tied up in their individual companies, they want the discussion to start with a formal explanation of the risk-and. return relationship relative to ownership in a single company. They want the explanation expanded to include risk and return issues important to potential investors who hold a portfolio of stocks Finally, they are interested in understanding the risk of managerial decisions as opposed to investors‘ decisions and how investors’ perceptions affect the “true risk” of corporate decisions.

To help make the discussion more concrete, the consultants contacted and obtained forecast data from several major brokerage companies with which they had a close working relationship. Because of forecast uncertainty, the consultants developed security returns for five scenarios with corresponding probabilities of occurrence for the financial instruments listed in Table I. Specifically, the table lists data for short-term and long-term treasuries, publicly traded stocks for a regional restaurant chain (referred to as EAT), two companies with operations similar to CPC and Morely, and an index fund designed to mirror the performance of small stocks as represented by the NAS­DAQ. The statistical properties for CPC were left incomplete so that they could he used for learn­ing tools during the discussion. The consultants also developed partial data on portfolios composed of CPC-Morely, CPC-EAT, and Morely-EAT in order to explain how diversification helps investors and why it is important for determining investors’ required return. The consultants’ research indi­cated that Filmore Enterprises should he similar to a company comprised of 40% computer and 60’k restaurant business. The portfolio data for such a company is included in Table 2.

As an employee of the consultant company, you have been assigned to develop and lead the meeting with Kathy and Randy. To help prepare for the meeting, you have been provided the fol­lowing questions.

Text Box: 0.10 0.20 0.40 0.20 0.10Recession Below avg. Average Above avg. Boom

Expected return Variance

Std deviation Coef of var (CV) Beta coefficient

1. Text Box: TABLE 1 Returns on Alternative InvestmentsText Box: T-BillsText Box: 4.5% 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5Text Box: 0.0 0.00% 0.00 0.00Text Box: Chapter 1: Filmore Enterprises: DirectedText Box:Text Box: Long-Run State of the Economy Proh.Text Box: T-Bonds CPC MOREL Y 10.0% -18.00% 18.00% 7.0 -8.00 14.00 5.0 11.00 6.00 3.0 26.00 -1.00 2.0 35.00 -11.00 5.0 65.8 2.23% 8.11% 0.43 1.42 -0.22 1.53 -0.77Text Box: Estimated Rates of ReturnText Box: EATText Box: -13.00%Text Box: -6.00 10.00 20.00 30.00Text Box: NASDAQText Box: IndexText Box: -13.00%Text Box: -2.00 11.00 17.00 22.00Text Box:Text Box: 161.9 103.4 12.72% 10.17% 1.50 1.23 1.22 1.00Expected returns on stocks consist of an expected dividend yield plus an expected capital gains yield. The dividend yield is relatively predictable, but the capital gains yield is uncer­tain. Therefore, most of the variation between the high and the low returns shown in the table result from uncertainty about the stocks’ prices and the resulting capital gains or losses.
2. Returns on T-bonds during a given year consist of interest income plus capital gains if bond prices rise, or capital losses if prices decline. An increase in interest rates will lead to falling bond prices, while a decline in rates will lead to rising bond prices. Interest rates tend to rise during recession and fall during booms.
3. Betas are most appropriate for stocks. They are questionable for long-term bonds, primarily because bond returns are not included in the market index.

TABLE 2

Text Box: Long-Run State of the Economy Recession Below avg. Average Above avg. Boom Expected return Variance Std deviation Coef of var (CV)Text Box: 50% CPC 50% MorelyText Box: Portfolio 40% CPC 60% EAT -15.00% -6.80 10.40 22.40 32.00 8,98% 197.1 14.04% 1.56Text Box: 50% Morely 50% EATText Box: 2.50% 4.00 8.00 9.50 9.50 7.10% 6.1 2.47% 0.35Text Box: Prob. 0.10 0.20 0.40 0.20 0.10Text Box:Text Box: 0 1998 South-Western, a pan of Cengage LearningText Box:Text Box:Returns on Portfolios

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QUESTIONS

1. Calculate the expected rate of return for each of the financial assets listed in Table 1,

and complete the expected return row for Table 1. Based solely on the exPected returns of the investments appears the best and worst? Discuss the impact on returns for

Eeneral

changes in the economy for CPC. Morely. and EAT.

1. Considering U.S. Treasuries are guaranteed by the U.S. government, anesxwelraitnhe. DfoollTon8

hills

questions.

a. Is the T-bill return independent of the state of the economy? Briefly p

promise completely risk-free returns? Explain. h. Why do T-bond returns vary? Why arc T-bond returns high when the market returns are

Text Box:low?

c. How would returns on corporate bonds that Filmore Enterprises might issue compare with those for T-bonds? Would your answer be dependent on the potential bond rating of Filmore Enterprises?

1. Basing a decision solely on expected returns is appropriate only for risk-neutral individuals. Since most people are risk averse, risk is an important consideration for the decision.

a. Two possible measures of risk are the standard deviation and the coefficient of variation. Calculate the standard deviation and coefficient of variation for CPC returns and com­plete the related blanks in Table 1.

b. Compare the risk and expected return relationships among all six assets listed in Table 1 Explain the apparent discrepancies with the normal risk and return tradeoff.

1. Suppose investors create a 2-stock portfolio by investing $100,000 in CPC and $100,000 in Morely.

a. Calculate the expected return for each state of the economy, and then compute the expected return for the portfolio. Complete the related blank in Table 2.

b. Compute the standard deviation for the portfolio, and compare it to the standard deviation of the individual stocks. Complete the related blanks in Table 2.

c. In general, how would risk be affected if you formed another portfolio composed of CPC and EAT? Explain how the correlation coefficient affects the level of diversification in the CPC-Morely and the CPC-EAT portfolios.

d. Explain what would happen to the expected return and standard deviation as the portfolio mix changes. If you are using the spreadsheet model for the case, determine the expected return and standard deviation for a series of CPC-Morely portfolios starting with 0% CPC and increasing the percentage by 10 points for each iteration.

5 `..71ppose an investor has a portfolio consisting of just one randomly-selected stock. What happens to the risk as the investor adds more and more randomly-selected stocks to the port-

? Illustrate your answer with a graph showing “portfolio standard deviation” on the ver­tical axis and “number of stocks” on the horizontal axis.

1. Answer the following questions relating to diversification.

a. What implication does diversification have for investors?

b. If an investor decides to hold a 1-stock portfolio and as a result is exposed to more risk for than diversified investors, could the non-diversified investor expect to be comPensalc_ci __ all his or her risk? That is, could the investor earn a risk premium large enough to corn pensate for that pan of the total risk that diversification could have eliminated?

c. Explain the difference between total risk, diversifiable risk, and market risk.

Text Box: 4it 1998 South Western, a part of Cengage Learning